Jakarta, 4 Sep, 2023 (GNP): The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is confronting a pivotal moment during its summit in Jakarta as it grapples with escalating crises. From September 5 to 8, leaders from ASEAN’s 10 member nations, along with East Timor, are meeting in Indonesia’s capital to address pressing regional issues.
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Key figures, including United States Vice President Kamala Harris and Chinese Premier Li Qiang, have arrived. However, ASEAN’s ability to bridge divisions over Myanmar, safeguard the interests of nations like East Timor and the Philippines, and uphold its role as the premier diplomatic force in Southeast Asia is facing its sternest test.
Thailand’s outgoing military-led government recently caused a rift within ASEAN by embracing Myanmar’s regime, contrary to the bloc’s collective decision to suspend Myanmar’s generals from top meetings. This shift towards Myanmar was further bolstered by support from China.
Moreover, Myanmar’s military leaders recently expelled East Timor’s top diplomat in Yangon after East Timor joined a list of countries in meeting with Myanmar’s National Unity Government (NUG), composed of ousted and elected lawmakers associated with the incarcerated Aung San Suu Kyi.
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Addressing ASEAN foreign ministers on Monday, Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi acknowledged the gravity of the situation, particularly in Myanmar. She emphasized the importance of ASEAN’s relevance and the expectations of its people.
ASEAN’s credibility has been severely strained, particularly by its muted response to the Myanmar crisis. This has led to questions regarding whether China, a major regional player, is unduly influencing ASEAN’s foreign affairs.
The organization is also dealing with persistent challenges in the disputed South China Sea, where progress toward a code of conduct has been limited. The Philippines recently accused China of using water cannons against resupply vessels, adding to the tensions. China’s release of a new map outlining expansive territorial claims has only exacerbated the situation.
Charles Santiago, co-chair of ASEAN Parliamentarians for Human Rights, questioned ASEAN’s relevance, particularly in the context of the ongoing Myanmar crisis. He emphasized that the bloc’s silence on critical issues has raised concerns about who is truly determining ASEAN’s foreign policy.
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Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão of Timor-Leste stated that his country might not join ASEAN if it cannot convince Myanmar’s military junta to end the conflict. One suggested solution is for ASEAN’s founding states, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, which have taken a more principled stand on Myanmar, to jointly exert pressure on Myanmar’s junta and engage with the NUG.
However, with Indonesia’s chairmanship ending soon and Laos, due to take over leadership, the prospects for a breakthrough remain uncertain. Many analysts doubt whether Laos, heavily dependent on China, has the capacity or autonomy to lead on key issues.
As ASEAN leaders gather in Jakarta, the organization’s future hangs in the balance. The Myanmar crisis and disputes in the South China Sea are testing its ability to address crucial regional challenges and maintain unity.