Qaiser Mahmood
Student of International Relations, International Islamic University, Islamabad
Afghanistan is facing worst humanitarian crisis from last fourty years. the unfortunate terrain of Afghanistan has been pushed by different arch rivals to exercise their own strategic interest in their sterile mountains . Afghanistan Geo-strategic location is always been a testy sandwich for major global Players. Great game were ostentatiously played on the soil of Afghanistan. Scrambling Soviet Tanks, & Clumsy US war machinery utterly ruined the very tone of this country. Millions were fled internally externally. State infrastructure ,health care system, societal bonds, political fabrics, economy even every domains of life ravaged by the hands of an imaginary & undeclared enemy.
durable peace and longlasting security situation in Afghanistan will depend on the level and nature of external interference in its internal affairs. Recent US-Taliban Peace talks has triggered Taliban attacks on Afghans national security forces,which they considered as symmetric enemy . Intra afghan dialogue is bouncing in crazy increasing trust deficit.Taliban which claims as the Victorious faction against NATO & ISAF forces,will preserve the right to rule Afghanistan once again .this kind of strain political quagmire will definitely Push Afghanistan to an another unending Civil war.
Post-1996 situation of Afghanistan is seems more thorny & intractable in 2020 . North south division, Taliban insurgents are no more dominant figures in Afghanistan turmoil .increased assaults of different radical Islamist groups, Alqaeda, Daesh, Haqqani network, & more notable militant group ISIS has been viciously involved in many dreadful attacks on civilians places. Killing of newborn babies ,fragrant women’s, attack on religious congregation, children womens are the eye opening event’s of today Afghanistan.
US fought more than 19-years long war against Taliban militants & now she striving to set them all on table talk.the combating group were meant to dislodge from the political process are gaining the same momentum in Afghanistan political discourse. They might impose their own sweet well, including rhetoric social structure, rigid Islamic laws, zero tolerance for other political factions, particularly Current Afghanistan incumbent government. Internal political discordance is the vital reason of shattered political structure.
Covid-19 pandemic vehemently exacerbating growing uncertainties in Afghanistan. Taliban is going to use this menace as rising leverage. In case of partial & complete lock-down they may ignite their covert assullst against Afghanistan security forces. Covid-19 will give Taliban a magnificent opportunity to use it as a tool against Running Ashraf Ghani government. Afghan national security forces, civil military expenditures are largely dependent on foreign Aids, & US huge financial assistance .Shrinking global economic conditions will definitely harm Afghan security forces capabilities & requirements. Afghanistan security apparatus is directly linked with the assistance of Foreign donors & US financial support. It will be difficult for Asraf Ghani government to steer country affairs without foreign financial supports.
Different regional non-regional actor’s, Powers posses huge strategic interest in Afghanistan. Its a converted battle field for different global player’s where they have their own brutal national interest. China’s has fear of ETIM ,& Eughur militants taking roots on the soil of Afghanistan. Iran’s Fear is directly linked with US physical military presence in Afghanistan, Russia’s has decades long Phobia from Militant islamist insurgents including US presence. Pakistan which shares hundreds of Km border with Afghanistan has its own multipurpose economic & Security interest. India is another looming threat to the national security curriculum of Pakistan. India interest is to get access to the untapped Natural resources of Afghanistan as will to harm Pakistan influence. These involved actor’s has the immense impacts on Afghanistan internal stability. Without multi-nation’s coherence & mutual eagerness stability in Afghanistan wouldn’t be materialised in real sense.
Peace in Afghanistan is also vehemently linked to its own inhabitants. First they have to shunned all of their mutual disparities & internal antagonism. Afghanistan belongs to them, they must enjoy their due right to live peacefully, & stand with the comity of nations as an independent state with highest glory & dignity. Afghanistan is multi racial, multi ethnic, multi, linguistic & multi tribes country have a huge physical territory stretches from West to the East & north to the south consist of gigantic mountainous regions.
Afghanistan is no more independent country on Pakistan being prisoner of geography, a land locked country. India is taking footholds in Afghanistan. Pak-Afghanistan trade is dramatically decreased from $5 Billions to $1.5 billions. India has keen interest in Afghanistan. Both countries economic ties is booming. India is working on a railway track from Irani Port Chabahar to resources rich Hajikak district of Afghanistan. Afghanistan may use Irani Sea ports to bypass Pakistan as the only transit route to the Arabian Sea, Afghanistan is opening. Changing regional geo-strategic situation, Rising tension in South China sea, Reshaping new regional blocks, China BRI project & China- Pakistan economic corridor giving immense importance to Afghanistan Geo-strategic location . It would be far difficult for Pakistan to get access to central Asian states CARs. Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India gas pipeline, CASA100 , & other energy linked projects wouldn’t be accomplished without stable Afghanistan.
Pakistan must change its Afghanistan as ” strategic depth ” policy to an economic depth policy.soon Afghanistan will be in firm position to deal with Pakistan on tit-for-tat diplomacy, if Pakistan didn’t allow Afghanistan to get access to the Indian market on Waga border. Growing China Russia bonhomie in central Asia, Romanticism via BRI & EAEU economic projects, pipeline connectivity will give Afghanistan an upper hand to act as lucrative bridge among regional Powers. Wakhan Belt the only narrow trip will be the future “Great Wall between Pakistan & Afghanistan if Pakistan maintain punitive policy against Afghanistan.
Peace in Afghanistan is a dire need of many regional countries. Stable & prosperous Afghanistan will pave the way to regional connectivity, trade & massive economic activities. Afghanistan needs huge financial assistance, a mega “Martial Plan” to mitigate poverty, corruption, political instability, ethnic linguistic,tribal animosity, black market, drugs cultivation & overhauling educational institutions typical structure of seminaries,tranquillity among different segments of the country men’s. Charity begins at home. Future of Afghanistan belongs to the inhabitants of this country. No one would come to rescue them until they stood shoulder to shoulder .weakness is always a curse,their wounded bodies will be on the mercy of hungry vultures until & unless they identify their imaginary, covert, extremely cunning enemy .let’s peace prevail in the region.