Geneva (GNP): El Nino is expected to grow stronger before it peaks in December, and it could become one of the strongest events since at least 1950. The United Nations (UN) weather agency issued the warning on Thursday.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the phenomenon could push temperatures above average across much of the world. It could also alter rainfall patterns, raising the risk of droughts and floods in different regions.
The assessment appears in the agency’s monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update. It is based on a consensus among 13 leading national and international meteorological centres.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean turn unusually warm. That warming can shift wind, pressure and rainfall patterns around the globe.
It generally returns every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months. It alternates with its cooler counterpart, La Niña, with neutral periods in between.
The current event is moving fast. The WMO said sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels from October to December 2026.
The numbers show how sharply conditions have changed. The index that tracks these temperature anomalies rose from 1.6°C above normal in June to 2.5°C above normal in August.
For the October to December period, it is forecast to reach about 3.7°C above normal, potentially the highest level since observations began. That would beat the previous record of 2.6°C, set during the 2015-16 El Niño.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said there is a near-100 per cent probability that the event will last through February 2027. She added that it could rank among the strongest recorded since at least 1950.
Saulo also explained why the warning matters. El Niño does not create extra heat, she said, but releases heat already stored in the ocean. With the ocean at its warmest ever measured, there is simply more heat to release.
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Recent years offer a guide to what that can mean. The previous El Niño helped make 2023 the second-warmest year on record, and 2024 became the warmest, with global temperatures about 1.55°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.
The timing of the impact adds to the concern. El Niño generally peaks between November and February, but the resulting rise in global temperatures often comes later.
Some regions are already feeling the effects. In parts of Central America, drought linked to the phenomenon has contributed to the deaths of animals and the loss of crops.
Saulo said, “El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly.”
