Iran (GNP) Global energy corridors face unprecedented risks as Iran signals a highly strategic expansion of its maritime pressure campaigns. Having already disrupted traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is now indicating readiness to leverage its Houthi allies in Yemen to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb strait. This coordinated dual-chokepoint strategy threatens to severely restrict global trade and jeopardize major international energy arteries.
A Coordinated Alliance to Disrupt Global Shipping
The warning of a dual-chokepoint blockade was delivered by Mohammed al-Farah, a political bureau member of Yemen’s Ansarullah (Houthi) movement. Al-Farah cautioned that if US-backed Saudi operations against Yemen persist, a joint operational alliance could close both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
Such a dual closure, al-Farah warned, would trigger a catastrophic economic shockwave, potentially driving global oil prices to $200 per barrel.
This escalation comes amid a broader regional conflict initiated in late February 2026 by the US and Israel. The hostilities have destabilized the Gulf, resulting in thousands of casualties—predominantly in Iran and Lebanon—and prompting Iranian strikes against US military installations across several countries.
Expert Analysis: Strategic Shift and the “Nuclear Option”
According to the reports, Foreign policy and defense analysts warn that the potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb represents a highly calculated shift by Tehran to transform a localized conflict into an international economic crisis.
- Globalizing the Conflict: Fawaz Gerges, a prominent Middle East scholar, notes that Tehran is demonstrating its capacity to challenge both critical waterways simultaneously. By targeting these specific routes, Iran is escalating the situation from a bilateral dispute with Washington into a direct threat to the maritime infrastructure underpinning global energy markets.
- The “Nuclear Option” of Maritime Trade: Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies, characterizes the Houthi threat to Bab el-Mandeb as Iran’s secondary “nuclear option.” Krieg suggests this measure would likely only be deployed if the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) deems full-scale war inevitable, particularly in response to potential US airstrikes on Iran’s critical infrastructure.
- The Limits of Regional Diplomacy: Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Saudi-based Gulf Research Centre, points out that Gulf nations increasingly believe diplomatic options with Iran have run their course. While the Houthis retain the logistical capability to disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb, Sager emphasizes that they are unlikely to execute such a blockade without explicit orders from Tehran. He further warns that any such attempt would likely draw a decisive and severe military response from the United States and its international partners.
- A Call for Recalibration: Dennis Ross, a former US Middle East peace negotiator, emphasizes that Washington must find effective levers to alter Tehran’s strategic calculations, advising a return to diplomatic tracks to establish a stable, mutually acceptable arrangement before the conflict spirals further.
Also Read: Hormuz Crisis Deepens as US and Iran Trade Strikes, Akraminia
The Economic Stakes of Bab el-Mandeb
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait serves as the southern gateway to the Red Sea, connecting it to the Gulf of Aden. It is a critical conduit for Saudi Arabian petroleum exports and a massive portion of global commercial shipping.
The Houthis previously demonstrated their capacity to disrupt this corridor following the outbreak of the Gaza conflict in October 2023. Their targeted attacks on commercial vessels forced global shipping firms to reroute fleets around the southern tip of Africa, spiking transit times and shipping costs, and prompting defensive US and British airstrikes alongside a multinational naval protection campaign.
As current geopolitical tensions rise, the prospect of a synchronized blockade of both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb poses an unprecedented threat to the stability of global energy supplies and international commerce.
