Tehran, 28 June 2024, (GNP): An Iranian watchdog group consisting of clerics and jurists loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei initially approved only six candidates from a pool of 80, with two later dropping out.
Voting has commenced in Iran to elect a new president after Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter crash, with voters selecting from a closely vetted group of four candidates loyal to the supreme leader.
Polling stations opened at 0430 GMT and will close at 1430 GMT on Friday, though the hours are often extended until midnight. The ballots are counted manually, so the final result is expected to be announced within two days, though initial numbers might be available sooner.
While the election is not expected to significantly change policies, it could impact the succession of Iran’s 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who has been in power for over 35 years. Khamenei has urged for a high turnout to counter a legitimacy crisis caused by public dissatisfaction with economic hardships and restrictions on political and social freedoms.
Voter turnout has declined in the past four years, with a predominantly young population frustrated by these limitations. If no candidate secures at least 50 percent plus one vote, including blank votes, a run-off between the top two candidates will be held on the first Friday after the election results are announced.
Escalating regional tensions
The elections are occurring amid low and declining voter turnout. Only 48 percent of voters participated in the 2021 election that brought Raisi to power, and turnout hit a record low of 41 percent in a parliamentary election three months ago.
The election now coincides with escalating regional tensions due to Israel’s war on Gaza and Lebanon, and increased international pressure on Iran over its rapidly advancing nuclear program.
The next president is not expected to bring significant changes to Iran’s nuclear program or its support for groups across the Middle East, as Khamenei makes all major state decisions. However, the president manages the government day-to-day and can influence the tone of Iran’s foreign and domestic policies.
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A watchdog body consisting of six clerics and six jurists aligned with Khamenei vetting the candidates. From an initial pool of 80, it approved only six candidates, two of whom subsequently dropped out.
Among the remaining candidates are Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, parliament speaker and former mayor of Tehran, and Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator who worked for four years in Khamenei’s office.
Massoud Pezeshkian, who supports the country’s theocratic rule but advocates for detente with the West, economic reform, social liberalization, and political pluralism, is also a prominent candidate.
His chances depend on rekindling the enthusiasm of reform-minded voters who have largely stayed away from the polls in the past four years due to the lack of change from previous pragmatist presidents. He could also benefit from his rivals’ failure to consolidate the hardline vote.
All four candidates have promised to revive the struggling economy, which suffers from mismanagement, state corruption, and sanctions re-imposed since 2018 after the US abandoned Tehran’s 2015 nuclear deal with six world powers.
