Midterm Turnout Hits Record as Democrats Hold Poll Lead

Washington (GNP): With less than 24 hours left before Americans vote, Democrats have widened their lead in national congressional polling, raising their hopes of taking control of Congress from the Republicans.

The Call the Map polling average showed Democrats ahead by 7.8 percentage points on Sunday. A Big Data Poll conducted on October 30 put Democratic support at 52.3 per cent among likely voters, against 40 per cent for Republicans. Among registered voters, the figures were 51.2 per cent and 39.5 per cent.

The same poll recorded United States (US) President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating at 58.6 per cent among likely voters. These are national numbers, however, and they cannot predict individual state races, where control of Congress will ultimately be decided.

Democrats have built their campaign around the rising cost of living. Groceries, housing, healthcare and petrol have become major sources of voter frustration, while tariffs and the economic fallout of the war with Iran have added to the pressure on households.

Trump, for his part, remains defiant and insists his party will win. His campaign stops in Iowa and Kansas show how seriously Republicans are taking the defence of Senate seats in states he carried comfortably in 2024, where Democratic candidates have now become competitive.

The House of Representatives offers Democrats their clearest chance, as they need a net gain of three seats. The Senate is harder, since they must gain four seats to overcome the Republican majority. Michigan, Ohio, Texas, Kansas and Alaska are among the Senate contests drawing the most attention.

Michigan shows both the opportunity and the difficulty for Democrats. Their candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, is challenging Republican Mike Rogers in a race that could influence control of the Senate, and Trump has directed personal attacks at El-Sayed during the campaign.

Voters themselves have already made their presence felt. By Sunday afternoon, more than 53 million early ballots had been cast nationally, including about 30 million in person, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. That is a record for a midterm, beating the previous high of 45.9 million set in 2022.

Texas, California and Florida lead the country, with 7,630,789, 5,504,307 and 5,148,276 early ballots respectively. Georgia and North Carolina follow with 2,823,265 and 2,612,250.

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Several states have set records of their own. Georgia’s early vote passed 2.8 million before its early-voting period closed on October 30, topping the previous midterm record of roughly 2.5 million from 2022. In South Carolina, the State Election Commission said early voting had set a record for a gubernatorial election, with nearly 564,000 ballots cast by 3pm on October 26, against 561,563 in 2022.

Early voting was ending across much of the country on Sunday, including in New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Connecticut. California, Illinois and Arkansas allowed ballots through Monday, while Colorado and Hawaii continue early voting through Election Day on November 3.

The stakes are high for both parties. A Democratic win in either chamber would end unified Republican control of Congress and give the opposition greater power to investigate the administration, scrutinise its policies and obstruct parts of Trump’s legislative agenda. Trump said Republicans would “do very well” and even surprise their critics.