Statement from Khurram Schehzad, Adviser to Finance Minister
Islamabad : S&P Global Market Intelligence (S&P) has released its latest macroeconomic forecast for Pakistan*, offering an updated view on inflation, the current account, and growth, which can be compared with the State Bank of Pakistan’s (SBP’s) latest projections.
*1) Inflation outlook
S&P:
- 2026: 5.1%
- 2027: 5.6% (slight increase)
SBP:
For next two years: 5%–7% (range)
S&P’s point forecasts (5.1%–5.6%) sit within SBP’s 5%–7% band, and imply stable-to-slightly higher inflation from 2026 to 2027.
2) Current account balance
S&P:
- 2026: 0.5% of GDP
- 2027: 1.3% of GDP
SBP:
FY26: current account deficit expected to remain within 0%–1% of GDP
For FY26, S&P’s 0.5% deficit aligns with SBP’s 0%–1% range.
S&P’s other-year projection (1.3%) is slightly above SBP’s FY26 band (noting SBP guidance provided is specifically for FY26).
3) Real GDP growth
S&P:
- FY26: 3.5%
- FY27: 4.4% (strengthening)
SBP:
- FY26: 3.75%–4.75%
For FY26, SPGMI’s 3.5% is slightly below SBP’s range (SBP lower bound 3.75%).
S&P expects growth to pick up in FY27 to 4.4%, which is within SBP’s FY26 range (though for a different year).
Overall, S&P’s projections broadly align with SBP’s outlook, with slight differences on growth and the current account but a shared assessment of easing inflation and gradual economic improvement.
