Islamabad : Hydro-Analytical Update of Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej & Indus System.
Chenab: Trimmu has subsided to normal levels (~84,454 inflow / 83,756 outflow cusecs), no longer in high flood.
Upstream stations Marala, Khanki, Qaiderabad flows are also within normal limits.
Panjnad, however, remains in very high flood at ~ 369,085 cusecs, though receding compared with its fresh peak on 11–12 Sep.
Stress zones include South Multan (Jalalpur Pirwala, Shujabad tehsils), Bahadarpur Shumali & Janubi, Basti Lang (near M-5 Motorway & N-115 Highway), Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, Bahawalpur, Lodhran, Rahim Yar Khan, Alipur, Azmatpur, Liaqatpur, Uch Sharif, Ahmedpur East and nearby low-lying settlements along Indus proximity
Ravi:
Flood levels have receded considerably.
All stations are now in normal to medium range, no longer at earlier very-high peaks.
Localized drainage issues persist but system-wide stress has eased.
Sutlej:
Earlier surges have stabilized.
All stations are now at low-to-medium flood and holding steady.
Downstream stress across Kasur, Okara, Bahawalnagar and Vehari is subsiding but low-lying pockets remain inundated.
Indus:
Upper Indus barrages till Taunsa remain stable within normal discharge ranges.
Guddu Barrage has now reached projected levels (~635,759 inflow / 606,489 outflow cusecs) and is expected to rise to 650,000–700,000 cusecs by the night of 15 Sep.
With a lag of ~2–2.5 days, Sukkur Barrage is likely to receive ~600,000 cusecs by 17–18 Sep.
Flows will then take 8–10 days to reach Kotri Barrage, with peak discharges expected in the range of 400,000–450,000 cusecs by 24–26 Sep.
The flood will remain across Sindh through September before sinking into the Arabian Sea by month-end.
2) Observed Delays / Lags
Flood crest travel times remain behind initial projections due to:
- Backwater effects at major confluences (Chenab–Sutlej, Ravi–Chenab).
- Floodplain absorption and swelling across river confluences.
- Lateral seepage and inundation that prolong downstream flood translation.
- Hydraulic lag between Guddu → Sukkur (2.5 days) and Sukkur → Kotri (8–10 days).
Current Situation:
Stress is now consolidated at Panjnad and adjoining southern Punjab districts, with Indus flood wave building up at Guddu → moving downstream in the coming fortnight.
Current stress has shifted to Kandhkot, Ubaro, Kashmore, Ghotki, while proximity near Jamshoro, Qambar Shahdadkot and later Hyderabad–Thatta corridor will successively bear the downstream stress.
Maximum stress from downstream Panjnad at Chichran Shareef, Mithan Kot, Sadiqabad, Alipur has caused massive inundation but the flood is now receding.
Sohail Majeed is a Special Correspondent at The Diplomatic Insight. He has twelve plus years of experience in journalism & reporting. He covers International Affairs, Diplomacy, UN, Sports, Climate Change, Economy, Technology, and Health.
